It is going to be a long summer for would-be homebuyers in Washington. For those actively or passively looking—so not us “Zoom-surfers,” scrolling through listings as a form of recreational therapy—the Evergreen’s housing market is in a serious crunch. It is not just a matter of low inventory; well, not exactly.
See, after decades of construction at a level that is woefully below demand, the statewide household-to-unit ratio now stands at a dismal 5-to-1 (as of 2019) and will require an additional one million homes by 2044 just to keep pace with population growth and redistribution. With demand up (and up and up) and supply down (and down and down), it was only a matter of time before prices reached their current zenith. Case in point: King County, where the median home price now exceeds $1,000,000. As one realtor recently told Axios, prices between $1 and $2 million “are normal homes for regular working people.”
What has Governor Inslee and his administration done about this ever-worsening crisis—one far worse now than when he took office almost twelve years ago? Very little—at least that’s been effective. Indeed, the most “effective” thing Inslee has done for home prices of late is push through legislation like HB 1589, which will hike energy prices and make the costs of homeownership ever more expensive. It is not surprising that efforts have been made to repeal HB 1589 via an initiative which if it collects enough signatures will be on the ballot this fall.
Instead of fighting rampant NIMBYism, which continues in too many places to scuttle efforts to upzone for so-called “missing middle” housing (duplexes, triplexes, etc.), Inslee’s administration has focused on solving the homelessness crisis. No doubt a noble and worthwhile policy initiative—if done right, and not as a money toss for good headlines. In typical Inslee fashion we Washingtonians have not gotten the bang for our buck. In the last decade, the state government has spent $5 billion ostensibly to fight homelessness—we are not confident this administration has been lean and mean on person costs—including $143 million to find homes for 126 (you read that right) encamped persons.
The Legislature has stepped in but too often acts as a rubber stamp; though not everything it has done at Inslee’s urging, especially on housing, turned bad. To wit, pro-housing bills implemented in recent years include ten passed and signed into law in 2023—deemed by some as the “year of housing.” These included HBs 1110 and 1337 which together require cities to allow more housing types, including duplexes and triplexes, alongside accessory dwelling units in residential areas.” Great! But again, with NIMBYism rampant—as powerful in Democratic areas as anywhere else—statewide law does not a sea-change make. There will be decades of litigation before missing-middle housing becomes widely available.
And as this summer approaches—a popular time for home purchases (people move more when its warm out, go figure)—it behooves us (and especially potential buyers) to remember that after more than a decade of Inslee rule, the housing and homelessness crises have only gotten worse and worse and worse. Buyers in King County especially are now seeing the end-result of such inaction. And more will be seen. Do join me this summer as I write a series (not perfectly sequential) on the state of housing in the Evergreen. It will be a wild ride.
Alki,
Sam Spiegelman